Placing a modest bet on IIoT Stocks

I decided to place a small speculative bet on a couple of Canadian Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) stocks.

  • Buy SW.TO @ $37.47
  • Buy ITC.TO @$2.83

Both stocks have seen significant gains recently but I think the hype cycle has some room to run. Let’s hope I’m not the dumb money.

I have set stops at 10% below the purchase price on both to limit my downside.

Taking a position in Barrick Gold

Gold is down 4% today and the Gold Miners down even more.  The sell-off was initiated by stories out of Europe that Cyprus would be forrced to sell 40t of gold to fund its bailout, and that other European countries might follow suit.  Barrick Gold (ABX.TO) is down 7.6% today.  I am betting on a reversal and think that this is a good entry point.

  • BUY ABX.TO @ $23.10

POSTMORTEM

Writing today, 15th April, this has been a terrible trade.  ABX.TO has been down up to 12% this morning.  Normally I would sell a speculative stock if it fell by 5% since purchase but there was no such opportunity here as ABX.TO opened down 7%.  I sold at an 11% loss.

  • SELL ABX.TO @ $20.57

UPDATE

Writing a month later, on 17th May, selling this stock was a good move.  The stock closed at %18.58 today.

Getting into Cascades

chartimageCascades (CAD.TO) is showing a bullish techical indicator – a hammer.  Previously this indicator has heralded rallies in this stock.  I want to make a speculative investment.

  • Buy CAS.TO @ $4.57

POSTMORTEM

Writing today, 15th April, the hoped for rally has not emerged and the stock is essentially flat.  My thesis is no longer valid so I sold.

  • Sell CAS.TO @ $4.54

I lost a couple of pennies on this trade so we’ll call it a bad call.

Taking Profits from Constellation, Selling Other Hodson Picks

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Back in early March I bought Constellation Software (CSU.TO) based on the recommendation of Peter Hodson.  The investment has done very well – up 12.7%.

I feel that this level of growth is not sustainable so it’s time to take profits.

  • Sell CSU.TO @ $135.27

My other Hodson picks – StanTec (STN.TO) and Winpak (WPK.TO) – have performed quite well.  They are both up 2% since purchasing them.  However, I am not really committed Screen Shot 2013-04-11 at 8.26.23 PMto them as part of my speculative portfolio.  I’d prefer to raise cash to invest in hotter, more speculative opportunities such as Lululemon (LLL.TO).

  • Sell STN.TO @ $43.69
  • Sell WPK.TO @ $19.74

Out of Brookfield, Into Winpak

Earlier this month I bought three stocks that are highly recommended (A-rated) by Peter Hodson of 5i.  Two of these stocks have done well but one, Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners (BEP-UN.TO) has done poorly.  It was down over 6% at one point.  Normally I would sell a speculative stock that was down 5% or more (i.e., stop loss) but I neglected to set alerts for BEP.  Today BEP was up 2% so I took the opportunity to sell it for a 4.5% loss.  My other speculative stocks are up so I am not too distraught about this one.

I might have made a mistake when I bought Hodson’s A-rated picks.  Some of his recommendations are months old.  Perhaps I should have gone with the three stocks he recommended on BNN recently.  Accordingly I am taking the funds from the BEP sale and putting them into Winpak (WPK.TO), which dipped today.

  • Sell BEP-UN.TO @ $29.92
  • Buy WPK.TO @ $19.35

Speculating on Yahoo

tdy_marissa_mayer_121005.video-260x195Yahoo (YHOO) has developed significant momentum since Marissa Mayer took over as CEO in July 2012.  The chart shows room to run and I want to participate.

  • Buy YHOO @ $23.00

This is a momentum (greater fool) speculative trade, so I must set careful stops to limit losses or protect profit.  I will sell on 5% drop (@ $21.85) and will take profits on 25% gain (@ $28.75).

POSTMORTEM

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Writing today, 6th April, Yahoo is at $23.30, up 1.3% since I bought it.  The stock has been quite volatile this month, at one point down 4% to $22.01.  Although this is a profitable trade I do not think we can call it a good call.  Not yet.  Let’s call it a mixed call.

UPDATE

Writing today, 23rd April, Yahoo’s price has not advanced as steadily as I had hoped – it does not have the momentum I am looking for.  Time to get out, with a decent 6% profit.  I’m upgrading this trade to a good call.

Sell YHOO @ $24.40

Speculating on McGraw Hill

Standard-and-poors-300x168McGraw Hill (MHP) is the parent company of Standard and Poors (S&P), the credit rating agency.  On February 4th McGraw Hill announced that it expected a Government lawsuit regarding S&P’s alleged fraud.  The alleged fraud relates to mis-rating mortgage-backed securities.  News of this lawsuit sent the stock tumbling from $58.34 on 1st February to $42.67 on 8th February (down 27% in a week).

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The stock has recovered some 11% to $47.24, but it is still 16% down on recent highs.  I expect the stock to recover to recent highs within a couple of months.

  • Buy MHP @$47.24

This is a “special situations” trade and will be part of my speculative portfolio.  I must set careful stops to limit losses or protect profit.  I will sell on 5% drop (@ $44.88) and will sell the whole position if it gets back to $58.

POSTMORTEM

Writing today, 30th March, this looks like a great call.  MHP is up over 10% in a month.

Screen Shot 2013-03-31 at 9.54.14 AM

UPDATE

Writing today, 24th April, I have decided to get out of McGraw-Hill.  The stock has stalled at $52, which gives me a nice 10% profit (with TD Waterhouse taking 3% in foreign exchange fees! – 1.5% on buying and 1/5% on selling).

  • Sell MHP @ $52.00